Eastern Michigan @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Wed, Nov 8, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

4-5 · Power #126

final

Final

Toledo

8-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -20

✓ TOL W

Total

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 13–33 TOL

✓ TOL (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -20

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Home favorites of 18–22 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -20

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 20-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 49–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 45, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.7 against an average line of 20; 44.9 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Very close	AFA vs CSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-21.5	24–12	L	U43
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Very close	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Very close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Very close	LIB vs SHSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-21	21–16	L	U46.5
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-20	44–0	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WWWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	3-2
TOL LLLWW	4-5	44%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU O–OUO	4-4	50%	4-5
TOL O–UUU	3-4	43%	8-1

Went over in Q3. Of 88 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMUlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	4-4 50%
TOLlast 9	8-1 89%	4-5 44%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−3.1 →−15.0▼ 11.9#127

TOL+0.7 →+2.3▲ 1.6#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

EMU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#127

Offense

TOL better ▶

#27

#52

Defense

TOL better ▶

#26

0.0 #66

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #71

58 plays #131

Pace

TOL faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	EMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #122	19.3 #25	TOL
Yards / play	4.46 #132	4.94 #26	TOL
PPA / play	−0.01 #126	−0.02 #18	TOL
Success rate	37% #126	38% #34	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #24	22.3 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.42 #31	5.39 #56	TOL
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	+0.05 #41	Even
Success rate	48% #18	42% #66	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.8 #93	6.8 #92	11.6 #98	4.0 #111	3.0 #131	7.0 #128
TOL allowed	3.9 #31	5.6 #23	9.4 #26	5.9 #70	4.0 #15	9.9 #33

TOL scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.9 #15	9.1 #46	18.0 #24	9.3 #14	7.1 #57	16.4 #26
EMU allowed	4.2 #41	5.9 #33	10.1 #33	6.0 #72	6.2 #63	12.2 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.