Southern Miss @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Thu, Nov 9, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

2-7 · Power #121

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

5-4 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

UL -7.5

✓ USM W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 23–32 UL

✗ UL (72%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -7.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -7.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 7.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USM won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 7; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	AFA vs UNM 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8	28–0	W	U55.5
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6	38–39	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LLLWW	3-6	33%	1-3	1-4
UL LWLWL	3-6	33%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM O–OOU	6-2	75%	2-7
UL OUUUU	4-5	44%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 130 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USMlast 9	2-7 22%	3-6 33%	6-2 75%
ULlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USM 24–5 UL USM leads · 29 games since 1953 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−0.3 →−11.9▼ 11.6#118

UL+1.8 →−4.2▼ 6.0#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USM

Longer bar = better

#101

Offense

UL better ▶

#45

#112

Defense

UL better ▶

#89

+0.2 #51

Turnovers

◀ USM better

−0.1 #80

71 plays #29

Pace

◀ USM faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #98	28.0 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #100	5.41 #57	UL
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	38% #118	46% #123	Even

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #42	35.8 #130	UL
Yards / play	6.33 #35	7.13 #136	UL
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.19 #112	UL
Success rate	44% #46	42% #71	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.8 #49	5.2 #118	12.0 #93	5.4 #84	5.6 #96	11.0 #97
UL allowed	4.6 #47	6.2 #42	10.8 #40	7.7 #112	9.6 #118	17.2 #125

UL scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.0 #86	10.2 #27	15.2 #56	8.7 #20	7.2 #55	15.9 #30
USM allowed	10.1 #131	7.6 #77	17.7 #117	10.0 #130	8.1 #97	18.1 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.