UL Monroe @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-6 · Power #129

final

Final

Southern Miss

1-7 · Power #121

▲ winner

Closing spread

USM -3

✓ USM W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 25–28 USM

✓ USM (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSM -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSM -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 54%, covered 43% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSM -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 3-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USM won 24–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 2.2; 53.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	TXST vs ULM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–19	W	U57.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	34–14	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLWWL	4-4	50%	2-1	4-2
USM LLLLW	2-6	25%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; USM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM O–UOO	3-3	50%	2-6
USM OO–OO	6-1	86%	1-7

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULMlast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	3-3 50%
USMlast 8	1-7 13%	2-6 25%	6-1 86%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM+0.7 →−14.4▼ 15.1#124

USM−0.3 →−13.5▼ 13.2#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ULM

Longer bar = better

USM

#109

Offense

Even

#105

#110

Defense

◀ ULM better

#124

+0.9 #18

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

−0.1 #82

64 plays #96

Pace

USM faster ▶

71 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #114	39.4 #134	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #87	7.34 #134	ULM
PPA / play	+0.03 #105	+0.25 #130	ULM
Success rate	36% #128	44% #99	USM

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #99	32.9 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #107	6.02 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.16 #98	Even
Success rate	37% #121	46% #118	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.8 #93	6.8 #94	11.5 #101	3.1 #123	5.8 #96	8.9 #120
USM allowed	11.4 #131	8.5 #92	19.9 #128	10.4 #131	9.1 #112	19.5 #132

USM scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	5.5 #81	5.9 #110	11.4 #104	6.1 #68	5.4 #101	11.5 #93
ULM allowed	6.9 #102	11.4 #126	18.3 #122	4.8 #45	9.9 #120	14.6 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.