Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Tue, Oct 31, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff35°F5 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northern Illinois

4-4 · Power #94

final

Final

Central Michigan

4-4 · Power #122

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -6.5

✓ CMU W

Total

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 28–22 CMU

✗ NIU (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -6.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 60% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -6.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 6.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 37–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 7.1; 48 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	3–10	L	U47
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	M-OH @ WMU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	34–21	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWWWL	4-4	50%	3-1	1-3
CMU WLLLL	2-6	25%	0-3	2-1

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UO–UU	3-4	43%	4-4
CMU OO–UU	4-2	67%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 109 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	3-4 43%
CMUlast 8	4-4 50%	2-6 25%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−1.1 →−4.6▼ 3.5#92

CMU−7.2 →−11.9▼ 4.7#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NIU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#87

Offense

◀ NIU better

#105

#45

Defense

◀ NIU better

#118

+0.4 #38

Turnovers

◀ NIU better

−0.8 #121

64 plays #96

Pace

CMU faster ▶

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #92	29.8 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.35 #89	6.31 #124	NIU
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	+0.25 #131	NIU
Success rate	40% #88	45% #113	NIU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	CMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #106	21.3 #42	NIU
Yards / play	4.87 #119	4.90 #23	NIU
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	+0.05 #51	NIU
Success rate	39% #101	42% #64	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.9 #109	5.6 #113	9.5 #119	7.1 #48	6.9 #63	14.0 #52
CMU allowed	7.8 #117	6.3 #41	14.0 #85	7.6 #109	8.1 #95	15.8 #113

CMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.0 #118	8.1 #68	11.1 #102	5.4 #91	5.5 #100	10.9 #98
NIU allowed	5.0 #65	4.3 #15	9.3 #25	6.0 #74	5.6 #52	11.6 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.