Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F21 mphgusts 39DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

4-3 · Power #126

final

Final

Northern Illinois

3-4 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -11.5

✓ EMU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 13–25 NIU

✓ NIU (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -11.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -11.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as an 11.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 20–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 10.4; 51 points a game (usually 56). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Very close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	35–26	L	O41
Very close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Very close	UAB vs WKU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-11.5	37–14	W	O44
Close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	27–21	L	O41
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LLWWW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-1
NIU LLWWW	4-3	57%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UUO–O	3-3	50%	4-3
NIU OUO–U	3-3	50%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMUlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	3-3 50%
NIUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−3.1 →−14.2▼ 11.1#127

NIU−1.1 →−4.0▼ 2.9#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

EMU

Longer bar = better

NIU

#125

Offense

NIU better ▶

#86

#53

Defense

Even

#50

+0.7 #23

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

+0.1 #61

58 plays #130

Pace

NIU faster ▶

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	EMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #124	22.4 #48	NIU
Yards / play	4.34 #133	4.97 #28	NIU
PPA / play	−0.01 #120	+0.05 #51	NIU
Success rate	37% #124	42% #71	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	NIU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #92	19.4 #29	EMU
Yards / play	5.48 #84	5.59 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	+0.04 #47	EMU
Success rate	41% #83	41% #65	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.1 #91	7.3 #88	12.4 #91	3.9 #117	2.7 #130	6.6 #127
NIU allowed	4.7 #62	4.4 #18	9.1 #28	6.4 #88	6.4 #71	12.9 #78

NIU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.4 #111	6.0 #111	9.4 #118	8.1 #32	6.4 #68	14.6 #52
EMU allowed	2.4 #16	6.1 #42	8.6 #23	7.1 #94	3.7 #14	10.9 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.