Middle Tennessee @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

2-5 · Power #99

final

Final

Liberty

6-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -16

✓ MTSU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 20–36 LIB

✓ LIB (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -16

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 14–18 since 2023: won 93%, covered 58% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -16

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 16-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 42–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 15.4; 57.4 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	6–22	L	U59
Very close	ARIZ vs UTEP 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.25	31–10	W	U57.25
Very close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Very close	LIB vs USM 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14	56–35	W	O59.5
Very close	CCU vs USA 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-17	23–6	P	U57
Very close	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-13.5	45–10	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-2	1-2
LIB WWWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	4-2

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UOUOO	3-3	50%	2-5
LIB UOU–U	1-3	25%	6-0

Went over in Q3. Of 84 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSUlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	3-3 50%
LIBlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MTSU 0–3 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2021 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−13.1 →−9.0▲ 4.1#109

LIB+3.0 →+4.1▲ 1.1#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MTSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#94

Offense

LIB better ▶

#24

#93

Defense

LIB better ▶

#25

−0.7 #119

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+1.3 #5

70 plays #41

Pace

Even

69 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MTSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #109	17.2 #19	LIB
Yards / play	5.53 #79	4.93 #27	LIB
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	−0.04 #16	LIB
Success rate	39% #105	38% #38	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #25	31.9 #115	LIB
Yards / play	6.94 #13	5.67 #76	LIB
PPA / play	+0.26 #23	+0.15 #93	LIB
Success rate	46% #33	43% #89	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.3 #85	7.3 #89	12.6 #89	4.4 #105	5.1 #102	9.6 #114
LIB allowed	5.0 #64	6.8 #61	11.8 #63	4.3 #41	1.0 #1	5.3 #7

LIB scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	7.5 #38	13.5 #7	21.0 #10	9.2 #20	5.2 #99	14.3 #55
MTSU allowed	6.1 #90	7.3 #71	13.4 #81	7.3 #94	11.1 #127	18.4 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.