Florida International @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Wed, Oct 18, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

3-4 · Power #131

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-6 · Power #114

final

Closing spread

SHSU -5.5

✓ FIU W

Total

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 15–21 SHSU

✗ SHSU (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSHSU -5.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSHSU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSHSU -5.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 5.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 33–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 42, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 6.2; 40.2 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	38–21	W	O42
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	10–7	L	U45
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	CONN vs FIU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7	17–24	L	U43.5
Close	WYO vs USU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.25	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	47–14	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-1	3-2
SHSU WLPWL	3-2-1	60%	0-0-1	—

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; SHSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU OUU–U	1-4	20%	3-4
SHSU UOO–U	2-2	50%	0-6

Went over in OT. Of 35 earlier overs in games with totals 38–46, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIUlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-4 20%
SHSUlast 6	0-6 0%	3-2-1 60%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−5.6 →−14.2▼ 8.6#126

SHSU−3.3 →−11.6▼ 8.3#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FIU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#104

Offense

◀ FIU better

#134

#73

Defense

Even

#70

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #97

59 plays #129

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	FIU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #120	24.7 #64	SHSU
Yards / play	5.72 #71	5.79 #85	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.11 #74	SHSU
Success rate	39% #104	40% #58	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	SHSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	11.2 #135	27.0 #80	FIU
Yards / play	4.19 #135	6.11 #108	FIU
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.08 #63	FIU
Success rate	32% #134	39% #41	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	6.9 #48	7.3 #89	14.1 #77	4.4 #105	1.1 #133	5.6 #131
SHSU allowed	7.5 #111	7.3 #75	14.8 #90	2.3 #10	6.3 #69	8.7 #28

SHSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	5.2 #89	1.2 #133	6.3 #131	2.5 #127	2.3 #130	4.8 #133
FIU allowed	8.3 #119	6.6 #53	14.9 #92	5.3 #62	6.9 #78	12.1 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.