Jacksonville State @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Wed, Oct 25, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F18 mphgusts 30Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville State

6-2 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

Florida International

4-4 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

JXST -9

✓ JXST W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 26–18 FIU

✓ JXST (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -9

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJXST -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -9

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 9-point road favorite at FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 41–16; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 8.7; 46.3 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	M-OH @ WMU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–21	W	O45
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	32–23	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WPWLW	5-2-1	71%	1-1-1	2-0-1
FIU WLLLW	4-4	50%	1-3	4-2

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOOUU	2-6	25%	6-2
FIU UU–UO	2-4	33%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXSTlast 8	6-2 75%	5-2-1 71%	2-6 25%
FIUlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JXST 4–1 FIU JXST leads · 5 games since 2020 · JXST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−4.6▲ 0.5#91

FIU−5.6 →−13.8▼ 8.2#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

JXST

Longer bar = better

FIU

#86

Offense

◀ JXST better

#103

#19

Defense

◀ JXST better

#77

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.4 #98

74 plays #11

Pace

◀ JXST faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #77	27.0 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #108	6.05 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.09 #68	FIU
Success rate	42% #64	40% #52	Even

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	FIU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #109	19.1 #24	JXST
Yards / play	5.45 #84	4.87 #22	JXST
PPA / play	+0.01 #113	−0.01 #23	JXST
Success rate	39% #104	34% #8	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	5.5 #76	5.5 #116	11.0 #104	7.8 #40	7.4 #51	15.1 #44
FIU allowed	7.3 #110	7.0 #65	14.3 #88	4.6 #45	7.3 #85	11.9 #67

FIU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	6.4 #62	7.3 #87	13.6 #76	4.8 #99	1.4 #133	6.1 #127
JXST allowed	4.6 #60	6.8 #59	11.4 #52	2.5 #12	5.3 #44	7.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.