Jacksonville State @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at South Carolina

Weather at kickoff63°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

7-2 · Power #69

final

Final

South Carolina

2-6 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -14

✓ JXST W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 20–33 SC

✓ SC (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -14

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSC -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 90%, covered 46% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -14

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 14-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 38–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 55, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 13.1; 48.8 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Close	UL vs USA 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-14	38–10	W	U53.5
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	VT vs BC 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-13	40–14	W	U61.75
Close	ARK vs LIB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	19–21	L	U61.5
Close	DUKE vs CLT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-10.75	53–19	W	O55
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	30–24	L	O51
Close	ORST vs STAN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	35–14	W	U56.25
Close	ILL vs CLT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-10	24–14	P	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST PWLWW	6-2-1	75%	2-1-1	3-2
SC WLLLW	4-4	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OOUUO	3-6	33%	7-2
SC OOOUU	4-4	50%	2-6

Went over in Q3. Of 101 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXSTlast 9	7-2 78%	6-2-1 75%	3-6 33%
SClast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−3.4▲ 1.7#83

SC−1.6 →+1.3▲ 2.9#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JXST

Longer bar = better

#84

Offense

Even

#73

#17

Defense

◀ JXST better

#107

+1.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.3 #94

74 plays #14

Pace

◀ JXST faster

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #66	31.5 #110	JXST
Yards / play	5.08 #111	6.17 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	+0.20 #116	JXST
Success rate	42% #69	43% #87	Even

When SC has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	SC off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #81	18.8 #22	JXST
Yards / play	5.60 #75	4.75 #18	JXST
PPA / play	+0.14 #60	−0.02 #21	JXST
Success rate	42% #76	34% #8	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.2 #44	5.2 #119	12.4 #87	7.2 #45	8.1 #39	15.3 #38
SC allowed	6.9 #103	11.1 #121	18.0 #120	6.4 #84	7.1 #85	13.5 #86

SC scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.4 #36	7.1 #87	14.5 #65	4.9 #100	6.0 #86	10.9 #98
JXST allowed	4.1 #39	6.3 #46	10.4 #41	3.7 #25	4.7 #34	8.3 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.