Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

3-8 · Power #116

final

Final

Jacksonville State

7-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -10

✓ JXST W

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 22–32 JXST

✓ JXST (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -10

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJXST -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 85%, covered 44% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -10

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 10-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 56–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 55, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 9.8; 63.4 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Very close	ODU vs CLT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	56–34	W	O55.75
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11	44–20	W	O59
Close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Close	TOL vs CMU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-10.5	24–23	L	U54.5
Close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Close	GAST vs TXST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	28–16	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WLLLL	4-7	36%	2-3	2-3
JXST WLWWW	7-2-1	78%	4-1	3-0-1

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT –OUOO	5-3	63%	3-8
JXST OUUOO	4-6	40%	7-3

Went over in Q3. Of 128 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-3 63%
JXST	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−2.5 →−9.7▼ 7.2#111

JXST−5.1 →−3.7▲ 1.4#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

JXST

#66

Offense

◀ LT better

#87

#95

Defense

JXST better ▶

#23

−0.7 #128

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+0.6 #22

67 plays #69

Pace

JXST faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	LT off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #71	20.7 #34	JXST
Yards / play	5.94 #53	4.91 #23	JXST
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.01 #23	JXST
Success rate	43% #60	35% #12	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #63	31.4 #113	JXST
Yards / play	5.07 #110	5.89 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.18 #107	Even
Success rate	42% #70	42% #66	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LT scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.2 #103	7.6 #74	11.8 #91	7.6 #36	7.3 #59	14.9 #41
JXST allowed	5.1 #60	6.4 #44	11.5 #46	4.0 #29	5.2 #39	9.2 #23

JXST scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.2 #42	5.4 #116	12.6 #83	7.9 #27	7.3 #57	15.2 #36
LT allowed	8.8 #124	9.6 #108	18.5 #125	6.6 #94	6.3 #63	12.9 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.