Buffalo @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Wed, Nov 15, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

3-7 · Power #119

final

Final

Miami (OH)

8-2 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -7.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 18–26 M-OH

✓ M-OH (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -7.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 51% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -7.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 7.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: M-OH won 23–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 37, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 6.9; 37.3 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs WKU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	10–6	L	U38
Very close	ARMY vs NAVY 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	15–0	W	U35.5
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	41–14	W	O37
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	24–21	L	O41
Close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLWLL	5-5	50%	4-1	4-3
M-OH WWLWW	8-2	80%	3-1	6-0

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF –UUUU	4-5	44%	3-7
M-OH –OUOU	5-3	63%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 72% of games with totals 33–41 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%
M-OH	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUFF 9–17 M-OH M-OH leads · 26 games since 1999 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−8.2 →−10.3▼ 2.1#114

M-OH−11.1 →−2.1▲ 9.0#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BUFF

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#115

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#72

#66

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#31

+0.4 #35

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−0.2 #89

71 plays #32

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

59 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BUFF off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #98	17.1 #12	M-OH
Yards / play	4.52 #130	4.88 #18	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.05 #42	M-OH
Success rate	40% #99	41% #52	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #63	28.2 #87	M-OH
Yards / play	5.90 #56	5.85 #89	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.05 #44	Even
Success rate	39% #106	39% #42	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.2 #83	5.4 #118	10.6 #108	7.0 #50	5.1 #107	12.1 #81
M-OH allowed	4.9 #52	4.3 #11	9.2 #22	3.5 #20	4.4 #18	7.9 #15

M-OH scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	8.3 #23	7.0 #85	15.3 #56	8.1 #25	4.6 #116	12.7 #74
BUFF allowed	6.4 #95	7.5 #74	13.9 #84	7.5 #112	6.8 #74	14.3 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.