Michigan @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan

10-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

6-4 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

MICH -18

✓ MD W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 34–16 MD

✓ MICH (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -18

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -18

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -18

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as an 18-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 51, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.9 against an average line of 17.4; 52.9 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Very close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Very close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Very close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Very close	UGA @ TENN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	41–17	W	O55.75
Close	OSU @ WIS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	24–10	L	U48
Close	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	24–22	L	U57
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	UGA @ AUB 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	27–20	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WWWLW	5-4-1	56%	4-0	5-4-1
MD LLLLW	4-6	40%	2-4	0-2

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH –OOOU	4-5	44%	10-0
MD –OOOU	6-3	67%	6-4

Went over in Q3. Of 155 earlier overs in games with totals 47–55, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	10-0 100%	5-4-1 56%	4-5 44%
MD	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+8.4 →+23.2▲ 14.8#1

MD+3.0 →+5.4▲ 2.4#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MICH

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ MICH better

#51

Defense

◀ MICH better

#44

+1.0 #7

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

+0.3 #42

62 plays #118

Pace

MD faster ▶

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #10	22.4 #47	MICH
Yards / play	6.66 #18	5.07 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #3	+0.04 #38	MICH
Success rate	53% #4	41% #60	MICH

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MD off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #59	7.5 #1	MICH
Yards / play	5.86 #60	4.23 #4	MICH
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	−0.18 #1	MICH
Success rate	44% #44	29% #1	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.3 #24	12.4 #12	20.7 #12	11.7 #1	6.6 #74	18.3 #10
MD allowed	6.6 #99	4.0 #9	10.6 #37	4.5 #42	7.3 #90	11.8 #60

MD scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	8.4 #23	7.0 #85	15.4 #55	4.9 #96	8.6 #26	13.5 #55
MICH allowed	2.0 #5	2.5 #1	4.5 #1	0.0 #1	3.0 #2	3.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.