Minnesota @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

5-5 · Power #79

final

Final

Ohio State

10-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -27.5

✓ OSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 10–38 OSU

✓ OSU (98%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -27.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -27.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -27.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 27.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 37–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.4 against an average line of 27.6; 48 points a game (usually 57.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Very close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Close	CLEM vs BC 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	34–28	L	O56
Close	OSU vs MSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-32	38–3	W	U48.25
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	CLEM vs GT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	14–8	L	U52.5
Close	CIN vs ECU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-27.5	55–17	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LWWLL	3-7	30%	1-3	1-2
OSU WWLPW	5-3-2	63%	4-1	5-3-2

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN –UUOO	4-4	50%	5-5
OSU UUUOU	2-7	22%	10-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 59% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-4 50%
OSU	10-0 100%	5-3-2 63%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−0.1 →−2.1▼ 2.0#76

OSU+8.6 →+20.9▲ 12.3#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MINN

Longer bar = better

OSU

#106

Offense

OSU better ▶

#19

#85

Defense

OSU better ▶

+0.6 #25

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

−0.1 #82

65 plays #87

Pace

Even

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MINN off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #103	9.9 #2	OSU
Yards / play	4.90 #121	4.05 #2	OSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	−0.08 #4	OSU
Success rate	40% #97	35% #9	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #30	25.8 #64	OSU
Yards / play	6.61 #20	5.94 #100	OSU
PPA / play	+0.30 #10	+0.14 #93	OSU
Success rate	48% #15	43% #81	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	3.7 #114	8.4 #60	12.1 #90	3.6 #116	6.5 #77	10.1 #109
OSU allowed	2.0 #5	3.1 #4	5.1 #3	2.1 #5	2.7 #1	4.8 #2

OSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.8 #51	10.7 #27	17.5 #30	7.9 #30	7.9 #38	15.8 #28
MINN allowed	6.1 #87	7.2 #61	13.3 #75	4.8 #50	7.1 #84	11.9 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.