Wisconsin @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff29°F5 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wisconsin

6-5 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota

5-6 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

WIS -3

✓ WIS W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 25–22 MINN

✓ WIS (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -3

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -3

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 3-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WIS won 28–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 46, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 2.9; 50.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Very close	MINN @ PUR 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	30–49	L	O48.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–27	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS WWLLP	4-6-1	40%	2-2	3-6-1
MINN WWLLL	3-8	27%	2-4	1-3

Venue/role: WIS away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUUUO	4-6	40%	6-5
MINN UUOOU	4-5	44%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 42–50 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-6 33%
MINN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+6.6 →+3.2▼ 3.4#45

MINN−0.1 →−2.6▼ 2.5#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WIS

Longer bar = better

MINN

#89

Offense

◀ WIS better

#111

#35

Defense

◀ WIS better

#91

−0.1 #80

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.4 #34

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ WIS faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #102	26.8 #76	MINN
Yards / play	5.16 #104	5.99 #104	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.16 #97	Even
Success rate	43% #52	43% #85	WIS

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	MINN off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #113	19.4 #25	WIS
Yards / play	4.79 #123	4.95 #24	WIS
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.05 #41	WIS
Success rate	39% #104	40% #48	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	2.7 #126	6.2 #99	8.9 #125	7.4 #47	5.5 #101	12.8 #72
MINN allowed	6.2 #85	7.1 #59	13.3 #75	5.9 #71	7.1 #87	13.0 #76

MINN scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	3.4 #119	7.6 #70	11.0 #98	3.3 #120	6.2 #82	9.5 #114
WIS allowed	5.0 #58	6.8 #53	11.8 #48	3.7 #20	3.8 #10	7.5 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.