Wisconsin vs LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (ReliaQuest Bowl, 2023)

Mon, Jan 1, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTReliaQuest Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff66°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

7-5 · Power #42

final

Final

LSU

9-3 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -9.5

✓ WIS W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 27–38 LSU

✓ LSU (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -9.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -9.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 9.5-point neutral-site favorite against WIS, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 35–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 60, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 9.2; 69.1 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX vs COLO 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	55–23	W	O65.5
Close	MSST vs TTU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-10	7–34	L	U58
Close	ALA vs KSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	45–20	W	O58
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	UNC vs SC 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	21–38	L	O57.5
Loose	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-7	47–32	W	O64
Loose	FSU vs OU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & spread	-10.5	35–32	L	O66.75
Loose	UCLA vs PITT 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & season form	-8.5	35–37	L	O54.5
Loose	CCU vs NIU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-12	47–41	L	O63.5
Loose	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-8	45–51	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WIS WLLPW	5-6-1	45%	—	1-0
LSU WLWWL	7-5	58%	0-1	7-4

Venue/role: WIS neutral, as underdog; LSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UUUOU	4-7	36%	7-5
LSU OOOUO	9-1	90%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 95 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	3-6 33%
LSU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	8-1 89%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+6.6 →+3.7▼ 2.9#44

LSU−6.4 →+18.2▲ 24.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

WIS

Longer bar = better

LSU

#86

Offense

LSU better ▶

#28

Defense

◀ WIS better

#107

0.0 #72

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.5 #25

71 plays #31

Pace

◀ WIS faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: WIS offense

	WIS off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #104	27.8 #81	LSU
Yards / play	5.24 #101	6.07 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	+0.25 #127	WIS
Success rate	44% #51	45% #111	WIS

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	46.4 #1	18.9 #17	Even
Yards / play	8.53 #1	4.95 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #1	+0.04 #30	LSU
Success rate	56% #2	40% #48	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	2.5 #130	6.8 #87	9.3 #118	7.9 #29	5.0 #109	12.9 #68
LSU allowed	7.0 #100	7.4 #66	14.4 #84	5.1 #49	8.3 #103	13.3 #84

LSU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.3 #14	14.3 #2	23.6 #5	10.7 #4	12.2 #1	22.8 #1
WIS allowed	5.2 #64	6.8 #48	12.0 #48	3.4 #11	3.5 #4	6.9 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.