Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (TaxAct Texas Bowl, 2023)

Wed, Dec 27, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTTaxAct Texas Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

7-5 · Power #17

final

Final

Oklahoma State

9-4 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

OKST -4

✓ OKST W

Total

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 27–28 OKST

✓ OKST (53%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -4

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -4

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 31–23; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 56, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 4.2; 51.3 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSU vs PITT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–21	W	U55
Very close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Close	WMU vs NEV 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	52–24	W	O57
Close	MD vs VT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	54–10	W	O55.5
Close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Loose	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & season form	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Loose	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Loose	CLEM vs TENN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & rest	-4	14–31	L	U61.5
Loose	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TA&M LPWLW	6-5-1	55%	1-0	1-2-1
OKST WLWLL	7-6	54%	0-1	3-4

Venue/role: TA&M neutral, as underdog; OKST neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UOOUO	6-5	55%	7-5
OKST UUOOO	7-5	58%	9-4

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	4-5 44%
OKST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+10.3 →+13.3▲ 3.0#15

OKST−1.5 →+3.2▲ 4.7#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TA&M

Longer bar = better

OKST

#46

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#63

#22

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#86

−0.2 #92

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+0.2 #53

69 plays #46

Pace

OKST faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #24	29.0 #95	TA&M
Yards / play	5.89 #55	6.41 #124	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.14 #85	TA&M
Success rate	43% #53	40% #41	Even

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	OKST off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #57	21.3 #34	TA&M
Yards / play	5.82 #59	5.01 #26	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	+0.01 #18	TA&M
Success rate	42% #62	35% #9	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	6.2 #62	13.2 #6	19.3 #14	7.6 #38	7.3 #54	14.8 #38
OKST allowed	7.8 #112	10.2 #117	18.0 #119	4.9 #46	5.5 #39	10.5 #35

OKST scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	6.2 #61	6.3 #97	12.5 #85	5.5 #81	10.5 #5	15.9 #31
TA&M allowed	4.6 #41	5.0 #18	9.6 #22	5.4 #58	6.3 #63	11.8 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.