Georgia Tech vs UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, 2023)

Fri, Dec 22, 2023, 6:30 PM ESTUnion Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff63°F8 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

6-6 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

UCF

6-6 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

UCF -6

✓ GT W

Total

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 28–34 UCF

✗ UCF (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -6

Total66

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCF -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -6

Total66

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 6-point neutral-site favorite against GT, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 30–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 66, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 7.2; 60 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs USU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.75	13–24	L	U68.25
Very close	ECU vs CCU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-7	53–29	W	O67
Very close	SMU vs BYU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–24	L	U65
Very close	IU vs MISS 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	20–26	L	U66.5
Very close	TEX vs COLO 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	55–23	W	O65.5
Close	SJSU vs BALL 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-9	13–34	L	U65.5
Close	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-7	47–32	W	O64
Close	TENN vs PUR 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	45–48	L	O66.5
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-7.25	39–10	W	U64
Close	HOU vs HAW 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-7	14–28	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GT WWLWW	7-5	58%	1-0	5-2
UCF LLWWL	5-7	42%	—	2-5

Venue/role: GT neutral, as underdog; UCF neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT OOOOU	8-2	80%	6-6
UCF OUUUU	4-6	40%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 42% of games with totals 62–70 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-2 78%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT−2.1 →+1.9▲ 4.0#54

UCF+15.6 →+6.8▼ 8.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

UCF

#38

Offense

UCF better ▶

#22

#117

Defense

UCF better ▶

#82

+0.3 #41

Turnovers

◀ GT better

−0.1 #81

67 plays #62

Pace

UCF faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #42	25.4 #62	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #29	5.77 #82	GT
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.08 #57	GT
Success rate	45% #44	47% #126	GT

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #33	30.5 #106	UCF
Yards / play	7.13 #6	6.29 #119	UCF
PPA / play	+0.27 #17	+0.19 #112	UCF
Success rate	46% #33	48% #130	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GT scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	5.8 #71	9.9 #37	15.7 #53	5.9 #76	9.6 #15	15.5 #34
UCF allowed	4.8 #48	6.3 #38	11.1 #37	4.4 #37	9.9 #128	14.3 #101

UCF scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.4 #11	8.3 #61	17.7 #28	7.6 #40	7.3 #55	14.8 #40
GT allowed	5.6 #75	7.1 #57	12.7 #63	8.5 #121	9.3 #119	17.8 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.