Houston @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Houston

4-7 · Power #88

final

Final

UCF

5-6 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -16

✓ HOU W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 22–37 UCF

✓ UCF (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -16

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCF -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61

Line context

Home favorites of 15–17 since 2023: won 98%, covered 53% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -16

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 16-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 27–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 61, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 21.4 against an average line of 15.5; 56.8 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-17	17–13	L	U62
Very close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5
Very close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Very close	BSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14	52–21	W	O62.5
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Very close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Very close	TCU vs BAY 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-13	42–17	W	U61.5
Very close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Very close	ISU vs TCU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-15.5	48–14	W	O61.25
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	45–10	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWLL	5-6	45%	1-3	4-4
UCF WLLWW	5-6	45%	3-2	2-4

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUUUO	5-6	45%	4-7
UCF UOUUU	4-5	44%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 42% of games with totals 57–65 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.3 →−4.4▼ 2.1#86

UCF+15.6 →+6.4▼ 9.2#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

HOU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#89

Offense

UCF better ▶

#21

#111

Defense

UCF better ▶

#89

0.0 #70

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.2 #88

65 plays #90

Pace

UCF faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #85	26.5 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #74	5.83 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.10 #67	UCF
Success rate	40% #88	48% #131	HOU

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #32	31.9 #114	UCF
Yards / play	7.16 #6	5.90 #94	UCF
PPA / play	+0.27 #16	+0.18 #109	UCF
Success rate	46% #30	47% #126	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.0 #86	8.4 #58	13.4 #74	2.8 #126	6.5 #74	9.4 #114
UCF allowed	4.3 #36	6.9 #54	11.2 #41	4.8 #46	10.5 #132	15.4 #111

UCF scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.7 #11	8.4 #58	18.1 #19	7.0 #54	7.9 #38	14.9 #37
HOU allowed	8.8 #125	8.4 #85	17.2 #114	5.2 #58	7.5 #96	12.7 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.