UCF @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

UCF

5-5 · Power #31

final

Final

Texas Tech

5-5 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -2

✓ UCF W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 27–30 TTU

✓ TTU (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -2

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 53%, covered 48% (70 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -2

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 2-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 24–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 58.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 2.3; 61.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	42–39	W	O59
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	UCLA vs ORE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	31–34	L	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LWLLW	4-6	40%	1-4	2-2
TTU WLLWW	5-5	50%	3-2	3-4

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF –UOUU	4-4	50%	5-5
TTU –OUOU	3-5	38%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 45% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-4 50%
TTU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+15.6 →+6.0▼ 9.6#34

TTU+2.7 →+4.5▲ 1.8#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UCF

Longer bar = better

TTU

#20

Offense

◀ UCF better

#74

#86

Defense

TTU better ▶

#51

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

−0.6 #124

69 plays #48

Pace

TTU faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #25	24.4 #56	UCF
Yards / play	7.21 #6	5.23 #43	UCF
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.08 #55	UCF
Success rate	46% #33	40% #49	Even

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #56	26.8 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #83	5.72 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.10 #65	Even
Success rate	42% #72	47% #123	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.3 #12	9.2 #46	18.5 #22	7.7 #36	7.8 #42	15.5 #31
TTU allowed	6.7 #99	5.3 #25	12.0 #56	3.8 #24	7.1 #85	10.9 #46

TTU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	8.6 #20	7.4 #78	16.0 #45	5.6 #82	6.2 #87	11.8 #83
UCF allowed	4.7 #47	6.2 #42	10.9 #37	4.6 #46	11.3 #133	15.9 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.