Baylor @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

3-7 · Power #93

final

Final

TCU

4-6 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -13

✓ TCU W

Total

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 23–36 TCU

✓ TCU (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -13

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTCU -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61

Line context

Home favorites of 11–15 since 2023: won 85%, covered 48% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -13

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 13-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 42–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 61, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 12.9; 55.5 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	52–21	W	O62.5
Very close	PUR vs RUTG 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	30–37	L	O61
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Very close	SMU vs NAVY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.25	51–37	W	O58.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	38–22	W	U61
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Very close	MSU vs MD 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-11.5	40–21	W	O60.5
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.5	35–14	W	U56.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LWLLL	2-7-1	22%	2-1	2-3-1
TCU LWLLW	4-6	40%	3-3	3-4

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY –OOUO	4-4	50%	3-7
TCU –OUOU	2-6	25%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 43% of games with totals 57–65 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	4-4 50%
TCU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.4 →−4.4▼ 1.0#86

TCU−3.1 →+6.3▲ 9.4#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BAY

Longer bar = better

TCU

#101

Offense

TCU better ▶

#42

#117

Defense

TCU better ▶

#72

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.7 #126

73 plays #14

Pace

Even

76 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	BAY off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #99	24.8 #60	TCU
Yards / play	5.30 #92	5.50 #65	TCU
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.13 #84	TCU
Success rate	39% #100	43% #79	TCU

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #58	32.4 #118	TCU
Yards / play	5.99 #50	6.23 #119	TCU
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.21 #122	TCU
Success rate	47% #23	45% #107	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	3.3 #121	6.1 #103	9.4 #114	5.2 #86	7.6 #49	12.8 #73
TCU allowed	6.2 #89	8.6 #91	14.8 #94	5.6 #64	4.4 #18	10.0 #31

TCU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.5 #54	8.2 #63	14.7 #66	6.0 #67	8.2 #31	14.2 #49
BAY allowed	7.7 #112	10.7 #122	18.4 #123	6.4 #86	6.8 #76	13.2 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.