Texas @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas

8-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

TCU

4-5 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

TEX -13

✓ TCU W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 35–23 TCU

✓ TEX (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -13

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -13

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 13-point road favorite at TCU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 29–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 12.2; 59.1 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA @ LSU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	42–49	L	O61
Very close	ISU @ TTU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	38–41	L	O55.5
Very close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Very close	ORST @ COLO 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	26–19	L	U60.5
Very close	PSU @ MD 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	31–14	W	U56.5
Very close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	23–0	W	U55
Very close	UGA @ MIZ 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	49–14	W	O54.5
Very close	TA&M @ MIZ 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	35–14	W	U59.25
Very close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	38–45	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX WLLWP	4-4-1	50%	2-1	3-4-1
TCU LLWLL	3-6	33%	2-3	0-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; TCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX U–UUO	2-6	25%	8-1
TCU U–OUO	2-5	29%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 49% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEXlast 9	8-1 89%	4-4-1 50%	2-6 25%
TCUlast 9	4-5 44%	3-6 33%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+8.6 →+16.5▲ 7.9#11

TCU−3.1 →+6.5▲ 9.6#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TEX

Longer bar = better

TCU

#33

Offense

Even

#40

#20

Defense

◀ TEX better

#68

+0.3 #37

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

−0.7 #122

70 plays #39

Pace

TCU faster ▶

77 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #23	24.3 #59	TEX
Yards / play	6.55 #20	5.39 #60	TEX
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.12 #80	TEX
Success rate	44% #50	42% #73	TEX

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	TCU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #55	17.6 #17	TEX
Yards / play	5.98 #52	5.03 #30	TEX
PPA / play	+0.20 #36	0.00 #22	Even
Success rate	48% #18	35% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.3 #24	9.0 #47	17.3 #30	6.7 #56	10.0 #10	16.7 #25
TCU allowed	6.1 #90	7.4 #74	13.6 #77	6.2 #81	4.6 #25	10.8 #45

TCU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.6 #53	9.1 #46	15.7 #52	6.7 #56	6.9 #68	13.6 #53
TEX allowed	2.2 #7	5.9 #34	8.1 #14	4.9 #53	4.6 #25	9.4 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.