Florida @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Florida

5-4 · Power #36

final

Final

LSU

6-3 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -16.5

✓ LSU W

Total

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 25–41 LSU

✓ LSU (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -16.5

Total68

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close68

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -16.5

Total68

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 16.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 52–35; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 68, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 25.4 against an average line of 17.3; 68.4 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-19	52–21	W	O67
Very close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Very close	OSU vs PUR 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19	59–31	W	O65
Very close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	63–35	W	O61.5
Close	OSU vs MSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	56–7	W	U70.5
Close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Close	MEM vs TEM 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-14	41–29	L	P70
Close	WAKE vs DUKE 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	45–7	W	U71.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LWWLL	3-6	33%	1-2	2-3
LSU LWWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	5-3

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA O–OOO	5-2	71%	5-4
LSU O–OOO	7-0	100%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 64–72, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLAlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	5-2 71%
LSUlast 9	6-3 67%	5-4 56%	7-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FLA 34–35 LSU (3 tied) LSU leads · 72 games since 1937 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA−1.7 →+5.2▲ 6.9#37

LSU−6.4 →+17.7▲ 24.1#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FLA

Longer bar = better

LSU

#47

Offense

LSU better ▶

#72

Defense

◀ FLA better

#114

−0.2 #92

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.6 #29

67 plays #65

Pace

Even

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #61	28.2 #88	FLA
Yards / play	6.09 #46	6.24 #121	FLA
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	+0.27 #132	FLA
Success rate	44% #42	46% #116	FLA

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	45.2 #3	24.7 #63	LSU
Yards / play	8.10 #1	6.00 #105	LSU
PPA / play	+0.45 #1	+0.16 #100	LSU
Success rate	55% #2	36% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.8 #31	8.6 #57	16.3 #41	4.7 #102	7.6 #53	12.2 #78
LSU allowed	7.8 #112	6.4 #47	14.2 #90	4.4 #41	9.6 #116	14.0 #87

LSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.2 #14	14.9 #2	24.1 #4	10.3 #5	10.8 #4	21.1 #1
FLA allowed	8.3 #120	5.6 #27	13.9 #84	4.4 #41	5.7 #51	10.1 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.