Mississippi State @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

4-5 · Power #64

final

Final

Texas A&M

5-4 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -16.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 15–31 TA&M

✓ TA&M (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -16.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTA&M -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -16.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 16.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 51–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 40, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 15.8; 36 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	31–3	W	U41
Very close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Very close	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Very close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-18	20–21	L	P41
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	PSU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	28–0	W	U45
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	PUR vs NU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	17–9	L	U44.5
Close	ILL vs MSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	15–23	L	U41
Close	NW vs ILL 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	28–10	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST LLWLL	2-7	22%	1-2	1-5
TA&M WLLLP	4-4-1	50%	3-2	4-2

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OOUPU	4-4-1	50%	4-5
TA&M O–UUO	4-4	50%	5-4

Went over in Q2. Of 41 earlier overs in games with totals 36–44, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSSTlast 9	4-5 44%	2-7 22%	4-4-1 50%
TA&Mlast 9	5-4 56%	4-4-1 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MSST 9–10 TA&M TA&M leads · 19 games since 1912 · TA&M has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+2.3 →−0.1▼ 2.4#64

TA&M+10.3 →+13.1▲ 2.8#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MSST

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#103

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#49

#74

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#28

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

−0.4 #107

61 plays #121

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	MSST off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #104	21.6 #42	TA&M
Yards / play	5.46 #82	4.96 #26	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.03 #32	TA&M
Success rate	38% #119	35% #12	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #36	25.7 #66	TA&M
Yards / play	5.89 #57	5.56 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	+0.10 #68	Even
Success rate	43% #55	43% #93	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.3 #119	7.6 #77	10.9 #105	5.3 #85	5.7 #99	11.0 #101
TA&M allowed	3.8 #29	5.6 #27	9.3 #27	6.4 #86	5.8 #53	12.2 #70

TA&M scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	5.6 #78	12.7 #8	18.2 #23	7.0 #49	7.1 #62	14.1 #49
MSST allowed	6.1 #90	9.9 #110	16.0 #107	5.2 #57	4.4 #22	9.7 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.