Kentucky @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

5-3 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

4-4 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

UK -5.5

✓ UK W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 26–22 MSST

✓ UK (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -5.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUK -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 51% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -5.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 5.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 4.9; 45.4 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	35–30	L	O45.5
Very close	OKST @ BAY 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	42–3	W	U49
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	35–21	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WWLLL	4-4	50%	1-1	4-2
MSST LLLWL	2-6	25%	1-4	1-4

Venue/role: UK away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OO–OO	5-2	71%	5-3
MSST OOOUP	4-3-1	57%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UKlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	5-2 71%
MSSTlast 8	4-4 50%	2-6 25%	4-3-1 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+6.1 →+2.0▼ 4.1#52

MSST+2.3 →+1.2▼ 1.1#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

MSST

#48

Offense

◀ UK better

#89

#67

Defense

Even

#80

+0.3 #47

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #59

56 plays #134

Pace

Even

61 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #49	25.9 #71	UK
Yards / play	6.52 #23	5.61 #72	UK
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	+0.11 #74	UK
Success rate	42% #77	44% #102	UK

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	MSST off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #85	24.8 #63	UK
Yards / play	5.76 #65	5.44 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.09 #60	UK
Success rate	38% #114	43% #84	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UK scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.6 #39	8.5 #61	16.1 #47	8.6 #21	6.0 #89	14.6 #44
MSST allowed	6.0 #86	9.4 #102	15.4 #104	5.5 #62	5.0 #35	10.5 #42

MSST scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.8 #113	8.1 #69	11.9 #97	6.0 #73	6.4 #80	12.4 #80
UK allowed	4.8 #55	8.4 #91	13.1 #72	4.9 #51	6.8 #80	11.6 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.