Auburn @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

4-4 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

2-7 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

AUB -12.5

✓ AUB W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 31–18 VAN

✓ AUB (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -12.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAUB -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -12.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 12.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 31–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 12.4; 52.8 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	19–6	W	U45.5
Very close	MICH @ RUTG 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.25	48–42	L	O52.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	UCF @ TEM 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-11.75	49–7	W	O52
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Very close	PSU @ RUTG 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	23–7	W	U51.25
Very close	BC @ SYR 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	16–13	L	U54
Very close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	34–37	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB LWLLW	3-5	38%	0-3	2-2
VAN LLLWL	1-8	11%	1-4	1-5

Venue/role: AUB away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UOOUP	3-4-1	43%	4-4
VAN OO–OU	7-1	88%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 57% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUBlast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	3-4-1 43%
VANlast 9	2-7 22%	1-8 11%	7-1 88%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.4 →+5.8▼ 5.6#34

VAN+2.1 →−9.4▼ 11.5#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

AUB

Longer bar = better

VAN

#73

Offense

◀ AUB better

#104

#60

Defense

◀ AUB better

#121

+0.5 #33

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

−0.4 #106

64 plays #100

Pace

◀ AUB faster

61 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #73	34.2 #124	AUB
Yards / play	5.45 #86	6.23 #119	AUB
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.24 #129	AUB
Success rate	43% #57	45% #110	AUB

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	VAN off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #80	22.5 #46	AUB
Yards / play	5.54 #78	5.70 #83	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.07 #53	AUB
Success rate	37% #125	41% #59	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	5.1 #85	9.0 #51	14.1 #67	6.0 #71	6.6 #72	12.6 #78
VAN allowed	7.1 #106	12.1 #129	19.2 #125	4.9 #50	10.1 #125	15.0 #104

VAN scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.6 #78	5.0 #122	10.6 #111	4.2 #106	10.7 #9	14.9 #41
AUB allowed	6.3 #90	2.5 #2	8.8 #19	7.3 #106	6.5 #75	13.8 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.