Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-6 · Power #111

final

Final

Ole Miss

6-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -24

✓ MISS W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 18–43 MISS

✓ MISS (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -24

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -24

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -24

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 24-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MISS won 33–7; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 62, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.9 against an average line of 25; 51.9 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-24.5	35–21	L	U60
Close	TENN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-24	45–14	W	P59
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-26	38–26	L	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LLLLW	1-7	13%	0-3	1-4
MISS WLWLW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOO–O	7-0	100%	2-6
MISS OUO–U	3-3	50%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 42% of games with totals 58–66 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VANlast 8	2-6 25%	1-7 13%	7-0 100%
MISSlast 7	6-1 86%	5-2 71%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

VAN 37–57 MISS (2 tied) MISS leads · 96 games since 1902 · MISS has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+2.1 →−9.3▼ 11.4#111

MISS+4.5 →+14.6▲ 10.1#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

VAN

Longer bar = better

MISS

#95

Offense

MISS better ▶

#20

#119

Defense

MISS better ▶

#60

−0.4 #99

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+0.9 #17

60 plays #125

Pace

MISS faster ▶

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	VAN off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #74	23.4 #55	Even
Yards / play	5.80 #66	5.17 #42	MISS
PPA / play	−0.01 #124	+0.10 #68	MISS
Success rate	38% #115	42% #76	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #9	34.4 #125	MISS
Yards / play	6.87 #13	6.23 #120	MISS
PPA / play	+0.30 #14	+0.24 #128	MISS
Success rate	45% #43	44% #101	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.3 #66	5.6 #113	11.9 #93	3.9 #111	12.0 #4	15.9 #32
MISS allowed	5.4 #74	6.3 #44	11.7 #56	5.4 #63	6.3 #69	11.7 #61

MISS scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	13.9 #1	4.3 #125	18.1 #27	8.9 #21	12.7 #1	21.6 #3
VAN allowed	6.4 #92	12.0 #128	18.4 #122	5.5 #64	10.5 #127	16.0 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.