Georgia vs Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

7-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Florida

5-2 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

UGA -14

✓ UGA W

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 32–19 FLA

✓ UGA (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -14

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -14

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 14-point neutral-site favorite against FLA, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 43–20; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 50, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 23.2 against an average line of 13.5; 50 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs FLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	MICH vs PUR 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-15.75	43–22	W	O54
Close	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-15	63–7	W	O54.25
Close	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-17	50–30	W	O52
Loose	ALA vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	27–6	W	U57.5
Loose	MICH vs IOWA 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-12	42–3	W	O44
Loose	LOU vs IU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-10	21–14	L	U50.5
Loose	TA&M vs COLO 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-17	10–7	L	U50
Loose	CLEM vs ND 2020 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-11	34–10	W	U58.5
Loose	WISC vs WAKE 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-10	42–28	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UGA LLLWL	1-5-1	17%	—	1-5-1
FLA WLLWW	3-4	43%	—	2-2

Venue/role: UGA neutral, as favorite; FLA neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UOO–O	3-3	50%	7-0
FLA UUO–O	3-2	60%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 108 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGAlast 7	7-0 100%	1-5-1 17%	3-3 50%
FLAlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+6.4 →+17.8▲ 11.4#8

FLA−1.7 →+6.3▲ 8.0#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UGA

Longer bar = better

FLA

Offense

◀ UGA better

#42

#11

Defense

◀ UGA better

#54

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

−0.3 #91

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ UGA faster

68 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	40.1 #8	20.0 #34	UGA
Yards / play	7.13 #8	5.73 #84	UGA
PPA / play	+0.33 #7	+0.12 #87	UGA
Success rate	53% #6	35% #12	Even

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	FLA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #65	14.0 #7	UGA
Yards / play	6.20 #43	4.38 #10	UGA
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	−0.06 #12	UGA
Success rate	47% #28	35% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.4 #80	15.6 #1	21.0 #10	10.9 #5	8.3 #32	19.1 #7
FLA allowed	7.3 #112	4.4 #17	11.7 #56	3.9 #29	4.4 #27	8.3 #19

FLA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.0 #45	10.6 #33	17.6 #32	5.1 #94	6.4 #72	11.6 #89
UGA allowed	3.4 #29	4.0 #12	7.4 #11	1.9 #5	4.7 #36	6.6 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.