Georgia @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

6-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

2-5 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

UGA -33.5

✓ VAN W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 43–10 VAN

✓ UGA (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -33.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -33.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -33.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 33.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 37–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.4 against an average line of 32.8; 51 points a game (usually 56). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA @ GT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-35.5	45–0	W	U54.5
Close	ALA @ USF 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-34.25	17–3	L	U60.75
Close	UGA @ VAN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-36	62–0	W	O54.25
Close	UGA @ MIZ 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-30.75	26–22	L	U54.25
Loose	LIB @ ULM 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-32.5	28–31	L	O56.75
Loose	OSU @ NU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & rest	-37.5	21–7	L	U55
Loose	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	31–12	L	U61.5
Loose	ORE @ COLO 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31	49–10	W	U62.5
Loose	HOU @ CONN 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & rest	-32	45–17	L	O54.5
Loose	UTAH @ COLO 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-30	63–21	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA PLLLW	1-4-1	20%	0-1	1-4-1
VAN LLLLL	0-7	0%	0-4	0-4

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UUOO–	2-3	40%	6-0
VAN OOOO–	6-0	100%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 72 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGAlast 6	6-0 100%	1-4-1 20%	2-3 40%
VANlast 7	2-5 29%	0-7 0%	6-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+6.4 →+19.9▲ 13.5#4

VAN+2.1 →−8.5▼ 10.6#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UGA

Longer bar = better

VAN

#10

Offense

◀ UGA better

#93

#11

Defense

◀ UGA better

#109

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

−0.6 #109

70 plays #37

Pace

◀ UGA faster

62 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #10	34.0 #119	UGA
Yards / play	7.14 #9	6.09 #103	UGA
PPA / play	+0.34 #11	+0.23 #122	UGA
Success rate	54% #8	43% #93	UGA

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	VAN off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #75	13.0 #10	UGA
Yards / play	5.89 #62	4.31 #8	UGA
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	−0.08 #9	UGA
Success rate	38% #110	35% #16	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.2 #82	15.3 #5	20.5 #14	12.2 #5	8.0 #46	20.2 #9
VAN allowed	6.3 #98	11.3 #122	17.6 #113	5.9 #76	10.6 #124	16.4 #115

VAN scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.1 #66	6.4 #107	12.6 #92	4.4 #106	11.9 #4	16.3 #34
UGA allowed	2.8 #27	4.7 #23	7.5 #18	2.2 #11	3.3 #14	5.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.