Auburn @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

3-2 · Power #40

final

Final

LSU

4-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -10.5

✓ LSU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 25–35 LSU

✓ LSU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -10.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -10.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 10.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 48–18; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 9.9; 64.4 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11	27–16	P	U61.5
Very close	TENN vs UK 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	44–6	W	U62.5
Very close	UNC vs VT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	41–10	W	U57.25
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	UNC vs MIA 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	45–42	L	O63.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-10	45–38	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	1-1
LSU WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-3

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OUUUO	2-3	40%	3-2
LSU OOOO–	4-0	100%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUBlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
LSUlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AUB 23–33 LSU (1 tied) LSU leads · 57 games since 1902 · LSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.4 →+7.7▼ 3.7#27

LSU−6.4 →+13.9▲ 20.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

AUB

Longer bar = better

LSU

#74

Offense

LSU better ▶

#36

Defense

◀ AUB better

#124

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #44

66 plays #82

Pace

LSU faster ▶

70 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #72	32.3 #114	AUB
Yards / play	5.43 #93	6.68 #129	AUB
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.32 #132	AUB
Success rate	46% #38	46% #119	AUB

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #5	18.2 #26	LSU
Yards / play	7.81 #4	5.19 #42	LSU
PPA / play	+0.45 #4	+0.01 #36	LSU
Success rate	54% #5	38% #40	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	4.0 #103	9.6 #49	13.6 #80	8.4 #32	7.6 #50	16.0 #31
LSU allowed	9.3 #123	7.3 #74	16.7 #106	3.8 #31	11.8 #131	15.7 #103

LSU scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	7.5 #37	15.5 #3	23.0 #7	10.3 #10	11.5 #6	21.8 #3
AUB allowed	3.2 #33	3.4 #8	6.6 #10	6.8 #90	4.8 #40	11.6 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.