Sam Houston @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Wed, Oct 11, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-5 · Power #114

final

Final

New Mexico State

3-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

NMSU -3.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 17–21 NMSU

✓ NMSU (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNMSU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 42% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 27–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 3.5; 47.8 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	24–17	W	U47
Close	UTEP vs ODU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	28–21	W	O48.5
Close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WWLPW	3-1-1	75%	2-1	3-1-1
NMSU WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; NMSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU –UOO–	2-1	67%	0-5
NMSU OUUU–	2-3	40%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSUlast 5	0-5 0%	3-1-1 75%	2-1 67%
NMSUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SHSU 1–3 NMSU NMSU leads · 4 games since 2023 · NMSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−3.3 →−10.2▼ 6.9#115

NMSU−6.9 →−9.2▼ 2.3#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SHSU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#135

Offense

NMSU better ▶

#26

#64

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#95

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #102

61 plays #119

Pace

Even

56 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	SHSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	10.8 #135	24.8 #67	NMSU
Yards / play	3.93 #135	5.93 #95	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	+0.18 #106	NMSU
Success rate	30% #135	45% #111	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #63	24.2 #65	Even
Yards / play	7.90 #4	5.64 #77	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.31 #17	+0.09 #63	NMSU
Success rate	49% #21	39% #52	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	6.2 #60	1.4 #133	7.6 #130	1.8 #131	1.4 #131	3.2 #133
NMSU allowed	4.0 #45	8.3 #87	12.3 #70	5.0 #54	7.5 #92	12.5 #74

NMSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.5 #97	11.3 #23	15.8 #61	3.8 #113	10.8 #9	14.7 #53
SHSU allowed	6.2 #95	6.2 #51	12.4 #72	2.8 #15	7.6 #96	10.4 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.