SMU @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

SMU

3-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

1-4 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

SMU -11.5

✓ SMU W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 30–19 ECU

✓ SMU (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -11.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -11.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as an 11.5-point road favorite at ECU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 11.1; 59.6 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	49–17	W	O50
Very close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Very close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Very close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	TLSA @ NAVY 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-12	19–6	W	U45.5
Close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	49–46	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1
ECU WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; ECU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU –UOUU	1-3	25%	3-2
ECU UOOUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	1-3 25%
ECUlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.7 →+5.5▼ 5.2#34

ECU−10.0 →−7.3▲ 2.7#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SMU

Longer bar = better

ECU

#52

Offense

◀ SMU better

#128

#33

Defense

◀ SMU better

#51

−0.8 #115

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

+0.2 #54

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ SMU faster

69 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #36	25.6 #73	SMU
Yards / play	6.08 #56	5.21 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #54	+0.09 #62	Even
Success rate	43% #63	36% #22	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	ECU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #114	18.4 #26	SMU
Yards / play	4.43 #132	4.65 #18	SMU
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	+0.04 #46	SMU
Success rate	35% #132	38% #40	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	9.6 #18	11.0 #26	20.6 #12	6.2 #72	7.0 #67	13.2 #77
ECU allowed	4.0 #46	7.8 #78	11.8 #64	6.8 #88	7.0 #79	13.8 #92

ECU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	4.6 #98	8.0 #79	12.6 #91	3.4 #118	5.0 #101	8.4 #120
SMU allowed	2.8 #24	3.4 #7	6.2 #9	5.2 #58	7.0 #79	12.2 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.