Florida Atlantic @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

2-3 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

3-3 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

USF -2.5

✓ FAU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 27–30 USF

✗ USF (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -2.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSF -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -2.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 2.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 56–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 3.4; 54.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–3	W	U61.75
Very close	NCST vs DUKE 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Very close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4	51–31	W	O66
Very close	ARIZ vs ASU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4	38–35	L	O66.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–27	L	U54.5
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-1
USF LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	0-2

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OUOU–	2-2	50%	2-3
USF UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAUlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	2-2 50%
USFlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FAU 2–5 USF USF leads · 7 games since 2002 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−0.2 →−7.7▼ 7.5#101

USF−3.1 →−6.5▼ 3.4#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FAU

Longer bar = better

USF

#119

Offense

USF better ▶

#90

#79

Defense

◀ FAU better

#101

−0.2 #86

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−0.7 #113

69 plays #56

Pace

USF faster ▶

80 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #115	32.8 #115	Even
Yards / play	4.96 #120	6.25 #119	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #123	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	37% #119	40% #58	USF

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #54	25.0 #68	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #82	5.30 #56	FAU
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.11 #76	FAU
Success rate	38% #115	45% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	7.6 #35	5.4 #117	13.0 #87	2.8 #126	4.8 #107	7.6 #122
USF allowed	9.3 #122	7.8 #80	17.2 #109	8.0 #106	7.7 #95	15.7 #104

USF scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	9.2 #19	6.5 #106	15.7 #62	7.0 #56	8.3 #41	15.3 #44
FAU allowed	5.4 #82	9.8 #106	15.2 #94	5.2 #60	4.6 #33	9.8 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.