Akron @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F14 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

1-5 · Power #130

final

Final

Central Michigan

3-3 · Power #122

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -10.5

✓ AKR W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 18–28 CMU

✓ CMU (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -10.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCMU -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -10.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 10.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 17–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 9.3; 40.5 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	10–7	L	U45
Close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Close	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-10	28–0	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LLWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-2
CMU LWWLL	2-4	33%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UUOU–	1-3	25%	1-5
CMU OOOO–	4-0	100%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 58% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	1-3 25%
CMUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−1.0 →−13.7▼ 12.7#124

CMU−7.2 →−12.2▼ 5.0#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

AKR

Longer bar = better

CMU

#127

Offense

CMU better ▶

#96

#62

Defense

◀ AKR better

#126

−0.7 #113

Turnovers

◀ AKR better

−1.0 #128

66 plays #81

Pace

Even

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #132	34.0 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.46 #131	6.80 #131	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #132	+0.32 #131	Even
Success rate	38% #114	46% #121	Even

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	CMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #96	29.5 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #101	5.65 #77	AKR
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.02 #41	AKR
Success rate	40% #98	37% #32	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.0 #103	5.7 #113	9.7 #118	2.8 #124	2.3 #129	5.2 #132
CMU allowed	8.7 #121	7.8 #80	16.5 #104	9.0 #119	8.5 #106	17.5 #124

CMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.5 #110	10.3 #33	13.8 #78	3.7 #117	6.2 #82	9.8 #110
AKR allowed	2.3 #14	11.0 #117	13.3 #82	9.5 #126	4.2 #24	13.7 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.