Northern Illinois @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F14 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-4 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Akron

1-4 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

NIU -2.5

✓ NIU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

NIU 21–20 AKR

✓ NIU (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -2.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -2.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 2.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 55–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 46%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 2.8; 46.9 points a game (usually 54.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	29–0	W	U54
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Very close	GAST @ USA 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–14	W	U58.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–17	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WLLLW	2-3	40%	2-1	0-2
AKR WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OUOUO	3-2	60%	1-4
AKR –UUOU	1-3	25%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
AKRlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−1.1 →−8.9▼ 7.8#108

AKR−1.0 →−10.0▼ 9.0#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NIU

Longer bar = better

AKR

#118

Offense

Even

#125

#70

Defense

AKR better ▶

#32

−0.6 #108

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #109

68 plays #58

Pace

◀ NIU faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	NIU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #122	24.4 #65	AKR
Yards / play	4.66 #126	4.80 #25	AKR
PPA / play	0.00 #117	−0.06 #16	AKR
Success rate	39% #105	35% #20	AKR

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	AKR off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #130	26.0 #76	NIU
Yards / play	4.72 #124	5.52 #69	NIU
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	+0.07 #61	NIU
Success rate	38% #109	41% #72	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.0 #126	2.8 #129	4.8 #133	5.4 #84	7.8 #51	13.2 #73
AKR allowed	1.4 #6	7.6 #76	9.0 #34	7.4 #96	5.0 #48	12.4 #73

AKR scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.4 #112	6.8 #103	10.2 #118	2.0 #130	2.8 #127	4.8 #131
NIU allowed	4.6 #59	4.2 #21	8.8 #31	7.6 #101	9.0 #115	16.6 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.