Vanderbilt @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida · Conference game

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Vanderbilt

2-4 · Power #111

final

Final

Florida

3-2 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -18.5

✓ FLA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

VAN 16–35 FLA

✓ FLA (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFLA -18.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFLA -18.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFLA -18.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as an 18.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 17.6; 45.5 points a game (usually 55.4).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18	20–21	L	P41
Very close	ND vs STAN 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	14–16	L	U53.5
Very close	ND vs GT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18	55–0	W	U57.75
Very close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	17–13	L	U62
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Very close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	31–3	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-2	0-3
FLA LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOOOO	6-0	100%	2-4
FLA –OUUO	2-2	50%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VANlast 6	2-4 33%	0-6 0%	6-0 100%
FLAlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+2.1 →−7.6▼ 9.7#101

FLA−1.7 →+6.7▲ 8.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

VAN

Longer bar = better

FLA

#88

Offense

FLA better ▶

#64

#100

Defense

FLA better ▶

#34

−0.7 #112

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #116

64 plays #95

Pace

Even

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	VAN off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #56	17.4 #24	FLA
Yards / play	5.80 #71	5.18 #43	FLA
PPA / play	−0.02 #122	+0.06 #61	FLA
Success rate	39% #102	32% #8	FLA

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #95	33.3 #115	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #55	5.94 #100	FLA
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	+0.19 #111	FLA
Success rate	46% #39	41% #75	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.0 #65	7.5 #86	13.5 #84	4.0 #107	13.8 #3	17.8 #21
FLA allowed	6.0 #87	4.8 #28	10.8 #54	3.4 #35	3.2 #11	6.6 #13

FLA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	6.4 #56	9.2 #61	15.6 #63	5.2 #89	4.2 #112	9.4 #111
VAN allowed	6.2 #90	10.8 #115	17.0 #110	5.7 #74	10.7 #124	16.3 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.