UCF @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kansas · Conference game

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UCF

3-2 · Power #31

final

Final

Kansas

4-1 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -3

✓ KU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

UCF 30–33 KU

✓ KU (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -3

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line context

Home favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 48% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -3

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 3-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 51–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 2.8; 74 points a game (usually 54.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ vs TENN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	24–62	L	O66.25
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	BYU vs ECU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–27	L	U64
Very close	BYU vs UVA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	66–49	W	O66.5
Very close	WKU vs UTSA 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	46–52	L	O71.25
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Very close	UCLA vs ORE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	31–34	L	O61.5
Very close	TEX vs KSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	22–17	W	U54.5
Very close	UNC vs WAKE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	58–55	W	O78
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-2	0-1
KU LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF –UOOO	3-1	75%	3-2
KU OUUOU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCFlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-1 75%
KUlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+15.6 →+4.5▼ 11.1#40

KU+2.0 →+3.3▲ 1.3#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UCF

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

Even

#23

#57

Defense

◀ UCF better

#93

−0.8 #114

Turnovers

KU better ▶

+0.6 #29

71 plays #34

Pace

◀ UCF faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #17	26.2 #79	UCF
Yards / play	7.73 #7	5.74 #88	UCF
PPA / play	+0.25 #32	+0.16 #100	UCF
Success rate	48% #25	44% #104	UCF

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #46	23.2 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.86 #22	5.30 #54	KU
PPA / play	+0.33 #14	+0.06 #57	KU
Success rate	51% #11	40% #62	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	13.0 #6	10.2 #41	23.2 #8	7.0 #58	7.4 #55	14.4 #54
KU allowed	4.8 #64	6.6 #53	11.4 #57	6.2 #80	8.6 #110	14.8 #102

KU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	8.4 #33	6.8 #106	15.2 #69	10.2 #16	7.6 #49	17.8 #22
UCF allowed	4.8 #64	3.4 #7	8.2 #26	3.2 #31	11.8 #130	15.0 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.