Baylor @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baylor

1-3 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

UCF

3-1 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

UCF -8

✓ BAY W

Total

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 23–32 UCF

✗ UCF (74%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -8

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCF -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Line context

Home favorites of 6–10 since 2023: won 74%, covered 52% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -8

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as an 8-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BAY won 36–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 56, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 9.1; 53 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SYR vs UVA 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	22–20	L	U53.75
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	13–9	L	U53.25
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Close	WSU vs ASU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	28–18	W	U59.5
Close	UVA vs NCST 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	21–38	L	O58.75
Close	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5
Close	UL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	45–38	L	O57.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LPLL	0-3-1	0%	—	0-1-1
UCF WLWL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY –UUU	0-3	0%	1-3
UCF –UOO	2-1	67%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 57 earlier overs in games with totals 52–60, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAYlast 4	1-3 25%	0-3-1 0%	0-3 0%
UCFlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.4 →−3.7▼ 0.3#81

UCF+15.6 →+4.6▼ 11.0#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BAY

Longer bar = better

UCF

#98

Offense

UCF better ▶

#21

#100

Defense

UCF better ▶

#58

0.0 #78

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.8 #107

73 plays #23

Pace

Even

73 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	BAY off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #117	20.0 #46	UCF
Yards / play	5.54 #84	5.16 #50	UCF
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.07 #64	Even
Success rate	37% #115	41% #72	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #22	26.8 #86	UCF
Yards / play	7.74 #6	6.16 #114	UCF
PPA / play	+0.27 #33	+0.21 #115	UCF
Success rate	50% #23	42% #83	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	4.0 #102	7.3 #90	11.3 #100	5.3 #81	3.5 #116	8.8 #118
UCF allowed	4.3 #60	4.3 #33	8.5 #39	3.3 #29	8.3 #100	11.5 #68

UCF scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.0 #11	11.0 #34	22.0 #12	7.0 #53	9.3 #31	16.3 #40
BAY allowed	5.3 #83	11.3 #117	16.5 #109	5.0 #68	5.3 #52	10.3 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.