Kansas @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff93°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas

4-0 · Power #24

final

Final

Texas

4-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -15.5

✓ TEX W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 21–37 TEX

✓ TEX (86%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -15.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -15.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -15.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 15.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 40–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 15.6; 58.5 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	ORE vs UCLA 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	38–35	L	O61.5
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Close	UNC vs NCST 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-14.75	48–21	W	O61.5
Close	ND vs LOU 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-16	12–7	L	U62
Close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	FLA vs TENN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	38–14	W	U64.75
Close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-12	47–27	W	O62
Close	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	37–36	L	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LWLW	2-2	50%	0-1	—
TEX LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0
TEX UOUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
TEXlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+2.0 →+4.8▲ 2.8#41

TEX+8.6 →+16.3▲ 7.7#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

TEX

#15

Offense

◀ KU better

#43

#64

Defense

TEX better ▶

#13

+0.8 #25

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #20

66 plays #85

Pace

Even

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #25	12.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.07 #19	4.54 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #10	−0.09 #13	Even
Success rate	56% #4	31% #5	Even

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #38	22.8 #62	TEX
Yards / play	6.63 #30	5.03 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #38	+0.06 #63	TEX
Success rate	42% #65	42% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	10.5 #15	6.8 #96	17.3 #51	11.0 #12	9.5 #23	20.5 #7
TEX allowed	3.3 #38	2.3 #4	5.5 #10	3.3 #29	3.8 #28	7.0 #21

TEX scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	5.0 #84	11.8 #28	16.8 #56	7.8 #43	10.5 #11	18.3 #23
KU allowed	3.5 #47	7.5 #76	11.0 #65	4.5 #59	7.3 #88	11.8 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.