Iowa State @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

2-2 · Power #35

final

Final

Oklahoma

4-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -19.5

✓ OU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 13–34 OU

✓ OU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -19.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -19.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 19.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 50–20; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 20.1; 56.3 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BYU vs SDSU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	28–14	L	U47.5
Close	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Close	CCU vs TROY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-17	35–28	L	O50
Close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-17	38–14	W	O48
Close	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5
Loose	MICH vs MSU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-21.5	24–27	L	U51.5
Loose	ND vs FSU 2020 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-20.5	42–26	L	O53.5
Loose	MICH vs RUTG 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20.25	20–13	L	U50
Loose	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-22	49–27	P	O51
Loose	ALA vs TA&M 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & rest	-24	24–20	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1
OU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2
OU –UOU	1-2	33%	4-0

Went over in Q2. Of 73 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
OUlast 4	4-0 100%	4-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →−2.7▲ 2.1#75

OU+20.5 →+19.9▼ 0.6#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ISU

Longer bar = better

#111

Offense

OU better ▶

#10

#21

Defense

Even

#17

+0.5 #41

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+1.8 #5

60 plays #124

Pace

OU faster ▶

73 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	ISU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #112	8.5 #2	OU
Yards / play	5.16 #103	4.42 #18	OU
PPA / play	+0.04 #100	−0.11 #9	OU
Success rate	35% #130	37% #40	OU

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	46.8 #4	16.5 #26	OU
Yards / play	6.97 #23	4.43 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.45 #6	−0.05 #24	Even
Success rate	55% #6	33% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.3 #80	6.3 #102	11.5 #100	3.5 #115	6.0 #78	9.5 #110
OU allowed	1.5 #10	3.5 #19	5.0 #4	1.5 #9	2.0 #5	3.5 #3

OU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	17.5 #1	9.3 #60	26.8 #5	12.3 #5	7.8 #56	20.0 #11
ISU allowed	2.5 #23	6.0 #50	8.5 #36	4.0 #44	4.0 #28	8.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.