Oklahoma @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

3-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

2-1 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

OU -13.5

✓ OU W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 37–22 CIN

✓ OU (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -13.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -13.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 13.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 20–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 57, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 14.3; 56.7 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ MSU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-15	41–7	W	U57.25
Close	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5
Close	MSST @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	39–17	W	U58
Loose	UNC @ BC 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-14.5	26–22	L	U52.5
Loose	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & spread	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Loose	ALA @ FLA 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	31–29	L	P60
Loose	BYU @ CCU 2020 · Week 14 · loose	-10.5	17–22	L	U62.5
Loose	OSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-15	52–13	W	O58
Loose	ALA @ ARK 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	49–26	W	O61
Loose	CCU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & total	-14	28–25	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0
CIN WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU –UO	1-1	50%	3-0
CIN OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 46% of games with totals 53–61 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	1-1 50%
CINlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+20.5 →+20.9▲ 0.4#1

CIN+1.0 →+3.4▲ 2.4#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ OU better

#32

#23

Defense

◀ OU better

#54

+2.0 #6

Turnovers

◀ OU better

+0.7 #39

73 plays #24

Pace

CIN faster ▶

77 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	55.7 #3	21.7 #63	OU
Yards / play	7.32 #15	5.52 #79	OU
PPA / play	+0.59 #3	+0.04 #62	OU
Success rate	62% #1	32% #12	Even

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #29	9.3 #5	OU
Yards / play	6.82 #26	4.29 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #23	−0.09 #23	Even
Success rate	46% #50	36% #41	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

OU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	21.0 #1	11.3 #43	32.3 #4	14.0 #4	9.3 #33	23.3 #6
CIN allowed	4.7 #70	4.7 #36	9.3 #51	3.3 #41	6.7 #72	10.0 #59

CIN scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	13.7 #10	11.3 #43	25.0 #14	6.7 #70	7.3 #59	14.0 #61
OU allowed	1.0 #11	4.7 #36	5.7 #14	1.0 #12	2.7 #21	3.7 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.