Army @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Syracuse

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Army

2-1 · Power #104

final

Final

Syracuse

3-0 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

SYR -13

Push

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 18–31 SYR

✓ SYR (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -13

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSYR -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -13

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 13-point home favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 29–16; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 13; 51.1 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17	38–14	W	O48
Loose	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & rest	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Loose	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0
SYR WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: ARMY away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY –OO	2-0	100%	2-1
SYR OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 52% of games with totals 46–54 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMYlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-0 100%
SYRlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−0.7 →+2.2▲ 2.9#51

SYR+6.3 →+9.2▲ 2.9#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARMY

Longer bar = better

SYR

#79

Offense

SYR better ▶

#25

#67

Defense

SYR better ▶

#10

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

SYR better ▶

+1.3 #18

68 plays #58

Pace

SYR faster ▶

75 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	ARMY off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #58	10.8 #7	SYR
Yards / play	5.61 #77	3.97 #4	SYR
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	−0.13 #8	SYR
Success rate	38% #107	34% #21	SYR

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	44.3 #7	18.8 #47	SYR
Yards / play	6.77 #26	5.27 #64	SYR
PPA / play	+0.27 #32	+0.03 #57	SYR
Success rate	48% #35	44% #100	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	9.7 #21	12.3 #32	22.0 #23	5.7 #80	8.0 #45	13.7 #67
SYR allowed	2.3 #20	2.3 #12	4.7 #5	2.3 #19	2.0 #3	4.3 #9

SYR scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	15.7 #6	18.7 #3	34.3 #2	10.3 #17	4.7 #91	15.0 #48
ARMY allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #50	5.7 #14	2.3 #19	7.3 #89	9.7 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.