Boston College @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Army

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Boston College

2-3 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Army

2-2 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

ARMY -4

✓ BC W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

BC 21–26 ARMY

✗ ARMY (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARMY -4

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARMY -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARMY -4

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 4-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 4.3; 55.9 points a game (usually 54.5).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75
Very close	CAL vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	49–31	W	O50.5
Very close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Very close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Close	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Close	NCST vs DUKE 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–20	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-1
ARMY LWWP	2-1-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OOOOP	4-0-1	100%	2-3
ARMY –OOU	2-1	67%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BClast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	4-0-1 100%
ARMYlast 4	2-2 50%	2-1-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−0.4 →−6.6▼ 6.2#97

ARMY−0.7 →−1.2▼ 0.5#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#86

Offense

Even

#80

#115

Defense

ARMY better ▶

#59

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−0.5 #106

71 plays #31

Pace

◀ BC faster

68 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	BC off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #78	18.8 #33	ARMY
Yards / play	5.61 #80	5.27 #53	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	+0.03 #49	ARMY
Success rate	38% #110	44% #101	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #62	33.2 #114	ARMY
Yards / play	5.61 #79	6.28 #117	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.11 #71	+0.22 #116	ARMY
Success rate	38% #106	45% #111	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BC scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	2.8 #117	8.2 #78	11.0 #109	7.4 #51	8.8 #32	16.2 #37
ARMY allowed	0.0 #1	5.0 #37	5.0 #5	5.0 #59	8.8 #109	13.8 #91

ARMY scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	9.0 #28	10.0 #52	19.0 #31	4.3 #103	7.5 #57	11.8 #88
BC allowed	4.8 #63	15.4 #132	20.2 #126	8.4 #110	3.4 #15	11.8 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.