Marshall @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at NC State

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Marshall

4-0 · Power #96

final

Final

NC State

3-2 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -6

✓ NCSU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

MRSH 20–25 NCSU

✓ NCSU (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNCSU -6

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNCSU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNCSU -6

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 6-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 48–41; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 5.8; 58.5 points a game (usually 54.2).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Very close	UVA vs BC 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	43–32	W	O54
Very close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Very close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	31–20	W	O47.5
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	28–26	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	—
NCSU LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-2	0-3

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0
NCSU –OUUU	1-3	25%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSHlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
NCSUlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−2.3 →−1.6▲ 0.7#71

NCSU+5.0 →+0.9▼ 4.1#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MRSH

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#78

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#93

#25

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#54

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

+0.2 #50

71 plays #33

Pace

Even

70 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: NCSU defense

	MRSH off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #70	20.0 #37	NCSU
Yards / play	5.83 #67	5.48 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.06 #59	NCSU
Success rate	41% #78	39% #55	NCSU

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	NCSU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #93	20.5 #39	MRSH
Yards / play	4.93 #119	5.14 #42	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	−0.11 #8	MRSH
Success rate	44% #60	32% #9	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	0.8 #133	10.3 #44	11.0 #110	10.5 #12	7.8 #54	18.3 #17
NCSU allowed	2.0 #13	4.2 #22	6.2 #8	7.4 #97	6.4 #72	13.8 #90

NCSU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.6 #73	8.8 #63	14.4 #73	7.6 #47	3.4 #123	11.0 #100
MRSH allowed	3.5 #44	7.5 #74	11.0 #57	6.0 #77	3.5 #18	9.5 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.