NC State @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

NC State

4-2 · Power #38

final

Final

Duke

4-1 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 22–27 DUKE

✓ DUKE (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDUKE -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 43% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 42.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 4; 39.9 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-4	25–10	W	U43
Close	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Close	WVU vs TCU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-3	24–6	W	U44.5
Close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	42–24	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-1
DUKE WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OUUU–	1-3	25%	4-2
DUKE –POOU	2-1-1	67%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 56% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSUlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	1-3 25%
DUKElast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-1-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.0 →+0.8▼ 4.2#59

DUKE+4.1 →+10.7▲ 6.6#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NCSU

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#87

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#29

#45

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#16

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.6 #30

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	NCSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #68	11.2 #4	DUKE
Yards / play	5.11 #106	4.46 #11	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	−0.06 #10	DUKE
Success rate	42% #69	38% #38	DUKE

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #42	23.5 #56	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #36	5.28 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #22	+0.02 #34	Even
Success rate	49% #16	39% #41	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.8 #74	9.7 #45	15.5 #60	8.7 #29	5.0 #105	13.7 #65
DUKE allowed	2.8 #20	3.4 #9	6.2 #8	0.6 #3	4.4 #29	5.0 #6

DUKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.8 #94	9.4 #51	14.2 #76	11.2 #5	7.2 #58	18.4 #14
NCSU allowed	4.0 #45	5.2 #29	9.2 #30	7.8 #104	6.5 #70	14.3 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.