UCLA @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Oregon State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

4-1 · Power #26

final

Final

Oregon State

5-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -3.5

✓ ORST W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 25–29 ORST

✓ ORST (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -3.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 43% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -3.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 3.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 36–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.9 against an average line of 3.8; 52.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSU vs NEB 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	23–20	L	U54.75
Very close	UCLA vs ASU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–42	L	O56
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Very close	TCU vs KSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–28	W	O54.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	22–19	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LWWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	0-1
ORST WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA –UOU–	1-2	33%	4-1
ORST OUOU–	2-2	50%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLAlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	1-2 33%
ORSTlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.8 →+9.1▲ 6.3#24

ORST+11.2 →+10.6▼ 0.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UCLA

Longer bar = better

ORST

#63

Offense

ORST better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ UCLA better

#41

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #28

70 plays #46

Pace

◀ UCLA faster

66 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	UCLA off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #56	19.7 #30	ORST
Yards / play	6.59 #25	5.11 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #65	−0.04 #14	ORST
Success rate	39% #104	42% #81	ORST

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #11	12.2 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #17	3.74 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #12	−0.19 #3	Even
Success rate	50% #14	33% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	9.8 #18	9.4 #51	19.2 #19	4.8 #100	6.6 #68	11.4 #99
ORST allowed	2.3 #12	6.2 #43	8.5 #20	3.7 #29	7.5 #91	11.2 #52

ORST scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.5 #37	11.3 #24	18.8 #24	7.5 #45	12.2 #3	19.7 #8
UCLA allowed	3.4 #34	4.6 #21	8.0 #14	2.8 #14	1.4 #2	4.2 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.