Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

3-4 · Power #116

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-5 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

MTSU -3

✓ MTSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 25–28 MTSU

✓ MTSU (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -3

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMTSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 46% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -3

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 3-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 31–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 3.2; 48.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–45	L	O52
Very close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	20–17	L	U55
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WLWWW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-1
MTSU WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OOUU–	2-2	50%	3-4
MTSU UUOUO	2-3	40%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LTlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	2-2 50%
MTSUlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−2.5 →−8.3▼ 5.8#105

MTSU−13.1 →−9.0▲ 4.1#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#82

Offense

◀ LT better

#100

#66

Defense

◀ LT better

#95

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

◀ LT better

−1.0 #130

65 plays #87

Pace

MTSU faster ▶

71 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #84	33.3 #115	LT
Yards / play	5.80 #66	5.66 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.15 #97	Even
Success rate	40% #94	43% #87	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	MTSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #116	27.0 #81	LT
Yards / play	5.56 #78	5.51 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	+0.10 #74	Even
Success rate	38% #114	38% #42	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LT scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.4 #100	8.3 #76	12.7 #90	5.9 #79	8.6 #35	14.4 #58
MTSU allowed	6.2 #91	8.0 #79	14.2 #87	7.3 #97	11.8 #130	19.2 #127

MTSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.5 #94	7.3 #89	11.8 #101	4.0 #109	4.8 #102	8.8 #117
LT allowed	9.4 #124	9.7 #101	19.1 #123	3.4 #33	4.4 #33	7.9 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.