New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Tue, Oct 24, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

5-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

3-5 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

LT -3

✓ NMSU W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 25–28 LT

✗ LT (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -3

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLT -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 43% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -3

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 3-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 55, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 2.8; 51.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–45	L	O52
Very close	USA vs TXST 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	30–20	W	U57.5
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Very close	UNT vs UTEP 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-0.5	20–17	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WWWWW	6-2	75%	3-1	2-1
LT LWWWL	4-4	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UU–UU	2-5	29%	5-3
LT OUU–O	3-2	60%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSUlast 8	5-3 63%	6-2 75%	2-5 29%
LTlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−6.1▲ 0.8#96

LT−2.5 →−7.9▼ 5.4#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NMSU

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#79

#76

Defense

Even

#71

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #98

58 plays #132

Pace

LT faster ▶

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #57	27.5 #88	NMSU
Yards / play	7.62 #5	5.49 #68	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.30 #15	+0.11 #84	NMSU
Success rate	49% #17	39% #45	NMSU

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #82	21.1 #43	NMSU
Yards / play	5.79 #66	5.73 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.11 #85	Even
Success rate	41% #86	43% #91	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	6.0 #69	10.1 #41	16.1 #54	4.6 #102	9.0 #27	13.6 #62
LT allowed	9.5 #126	9.4 #101	18.9 #124	3.9 #35	4.8 #38	8.6 #22

LT scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.6 #96	7.6 #80	12.3 #91	6.0 #71	8.4 #33	14.4 #52
NMSU allowed	3.0 #25	7.1 #69	10.1 #37	4.5 #45	6.5 #75	11.0 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.