Louisiana Tech @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

3-6 · Power #116

final

Final

Liberty

8-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -14

✓ LIB W

Total

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 22–37 LIB

✓ LIB (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -14

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 91%, covered 43% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -14

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 14-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 56–30; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 59, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 14.1; 57.3 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	HOU vs ECU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Very close	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Very close	UCLA vs COLO 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14	28–16	L	U60.5
Very close	NEV vs SJSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	27–24	L	U55.5
Very close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & total	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Very close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.5	6–22	L	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WWWLL	4-5	44%	2-2	2-2
LIB WLWLW	5-3	63%	1-3	5-3

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT UU–OU	3-3	50%	3-6
LIB U–UOO	3-3	50%	8-0

Went over in Q3. Of 82 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LTlast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	3-3 50%
LIBlast 8	8-0 100%	5-3 63%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−2.5 →−7.8▼ 5.3#104

LIB+3.0 →+5.5▲ 2.5#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

LIB

#73

Offense

LIB better ▶

#12

#70

Defense

LIB better ▶

#47

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+1.3 #5

67 plays #73

Pace

LIB faster ▶

71 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	LT off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #75	20.9 #37	LIB
Yards / play	5.73 #67	5.47 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.03 #38	LIB
Success rate	42% #73	40% #50	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #14	27.4 #85	LIB
Yards / play	6.93 #11	5.50 #64	LIB
PPA / play	+0.29 #13	+0.12 #81	LIB
Success rate	50% #10	39% #48	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LT scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.4 #101	8.2 #69	12.7 #82	6.2 #65	7.4 #50	13.7 #61
LIB allowed	6.4 #92	6.4 #48	12.8 #65	5.0 #54	3.1 #7	8.1 #17

LIB scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	8.3 #23	11.9 #15	20.1 #13	9.5 #13	7.4 #52	16.9 #21
LT allowed	8.4 #122	9.4 #103	17.9 #120	5.0 #54	4.6 #26	9.6 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.