Colorado @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

4-3 · Power #72

final

Final

UCLA

5-2 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -14

✓ COLO W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 23–37 UCLA

✓ UCLA (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -14

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 90%, covered 46% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -14

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 14-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 28–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 60, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.5 against an average line of 13.5; 64.9 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Very close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-12	47–27	W	O62
Very close	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13	41–20	W	O57
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	UNC vs NCST 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.75	48–21	W	O61.5
Very close	HOU vs ECU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Close	MSU vs MD 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-11.5	40–21	W	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO LLWPL	3-3-1	50%	1-1-1	2-1
UCLA WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO OUOUO	3-3	50%	4-3
UCLA OU–OU	2-3	40%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 42% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLOlast 7	4-3 57%	3-3-1 50%	3-3 50%
UCLAlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+3.1 →+0.3▼ 2.8#60

UCLA+2.8 →+10.2▲ 7.4#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

COLO

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#41

Offense

◀ COLO better

#58

#122

Defense

UCLA better ▶

+0.9 #16

Turnovers

◀ COLO better

+0.4 #38

76 plays #6

Pace

Even

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	COLO off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #26	14.9 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.69 #72	4.34 #8	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.24 #28	−0.12 #3	UCLA
Success rate	45% #36	35% #16	Even

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #46	35.9 #128	UCLA
Yards / play	6.24 #40	6.21 #118	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.12 #67	+0.20 #118	UCLA
Success rate	41% #78	47% #124	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	6.0 #69	8.4 #63	14.4 #69	5.3 #92	11.6 #6	16.9 #24
UCLA allowed	4.3 #46	4.7 #19	9.0 #23	4.9 #48	1.0 #1	5.9 #6

UCLA scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	9.0 #15	9.1 #47	18.1 #27	6.4 #60	6.7 #69	13.1 #65
COLO allowed	6.9 #103	10.4 #115	17.3 #115	8.7 #121	7.4 #91	16.1 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.