UCLA @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

6-2 · Power #26

final

Final

Arizona

5-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -2.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 27–25 ARIZ

✗ UCLA (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 43% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 27–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 3.1; 50.7 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	NW @ PUR 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	27–20	W	U48
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–24	L	U52
Very close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Very close	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	21–17	W	U48
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	MSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	31–13	W	U50
Very close	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Very close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Very close	AFA @ NEV 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	41–39	W	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LWLWL	4-4	50%	2-2	4-2
ARIZ LWWWW	7-1	88%	4-0	5-0

Venue/role: UCLA away, as favorite; ARIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA U–OUU	2-4	33%	6-2
ARIZ UU–UU	0-7	0%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLAlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	2-4 33%
ARIZlast 8	5-3 63%	7-1 88%	0-7 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.8 →+10.3▲ 7.5#21

ARIZ+1.3 →+6.9▲ 5.6#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UCLA

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#58

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#26

Defense

◀ UCLA better

#66

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

◀ UCLA better

−0.4 #102

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ UCLA faster

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #47	21.0 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #37	5.55 #69	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.10 #66	Even
Success rate	42% #72	44% #94	UCLA

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #43	15.0 #6	UCLA
Yards / play	6.48 #27	4.24 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #29	−0.10 #3	UCLA
Success rate	53% #5	36% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	7.9 #30	8.9 #55	16.8 #38	6.5 #62	7.6 #46	14.1 #51
ARIZ allowed	5.5 #79	4.6 #17	10.1 #32	3.5 #20	4.6 #29	8.1 #16

ARIZ scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	3.8 #113	8.6 #58	12.4 #88	8.5 #23	8.8 #29	17.3 #17
UCLA allowed	4.5 #48	4.1 #13	8.6 #19	4.6 #46	1.8 #1	6.4 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.